Look, at 25 to 1, there's no question these odds were written by
either Dirk, John, or Martha Stuart herself tryin to manipulate the market. My
guess is Dirk's money is on Dirk.
From: Joe Hackett [mailto:jhack16(at)gmail.com]
Sent: Friday, September 10, 2010 4:34 PM
To: Garry Bledsoe
Cc: Adam WB2K9 235; <camorse22(at)yahoo.com>; Dirk Knemeyer;
<kodiplomacy(at)gmail.com>; <m_don_j(at)hotmail.com>; Michael Sims;
<untitled36(at)hotmail.com>; <michael.alan.walters(at)gmail.com>
Subject: Re: dc340 DCI 2010 - S01 Results - And We're Off!
No experience of variants, friendless, alone in the
Desert,
heading for the Persian Gulf, a million miles from the
target rich
central European plains, surrounded by two legends of
the game?
Main asset one lone fleet in becalmed waters,
and I'm six to one?? Even I wouldnt back myself.
Who's the pundit?
Frank, you out there?
-joe h
On 10 Sep 2010, at 04:18, Garry Bledsoe <kielmarch(at)hotmail.com> wrote:
A start without bumps.
We have press and lots
of it!
Some bounces seem
imminent.
Armenia is surrounded by
3 players.
All,
Good start. We have no retreats
and are ready to roll into Fall. Let's set that deadline for next Thursday the
16th at 6pm CST. A quick note or two:
1. I was asked to share a map
without the names because it is hard to see. That is attached.
2. I was asked for a list of all
provinces. Unfortunately I could not find a list. However, I was able to get a
list of the SC's. The neutral SC's at the begininng are as follows: Anatolia,
Armenia, Austria, Bavaria, Bohemia, Brittany, Bulgaria, Cyrenaica, Denmark,
Georgia, Hesse, Languedoc, Morroco, Muscovy, Novgorod, Piedmont, Portugal,
Rumania, Saxony, Sweden, Tunisia, Turkestan, Venezia, Wessex.
I would suggest using the .dpy
file if you have any other questions or concerns (or just ask!).
Press is below the order
results. And oh - FTR - my money is on a 4-1 KOK and a 25-1 "good but not
great" player.
Lord of the March
Garry
Burgundy:
A Brussels - Ruhr
A Dijon - Gascony
F Hague - Helgoland Bight
Sicily:
F Naples - Tyrrhenian Sea
F Palermo - Malta Sea
A Rome - Tuscany
Eire:
A Alcluyd - Yorkshire
F Dublin - Irish Sea
F Edinburgh - North Sea
Hungary:
A Budapest - Austria
A Szeged - Budapest
F Zara - Adriatic Sea
Israel:
F Cairo - Libyan Sea
A Damascus - Syria
A Jerusalem - Arabia
Poland:
F Gdansk - Baltic Sea
A Riga - Novgorod
A Warsaw - Silesia
Spain:
F Santander - Bay of Biscay
A Toledo - Santander
F Valencia - Western Mediterranean
Ukraine:
A Kiev Hold
A Odessa - Rumania
F Yalta - East Black Sea
Byzantium:
A Athens - Bulgaria
F Constantinople - Anatolia
F Smyrna - Aegean Sea
PRESS:
Anon:
My wife and I were reading
"Charlotte's Web" to our child a couple of nights ago. It reminded me
of you. All of you. But some of you more than others of you. It's the bit where
Wilbur first encounters Charlotte, and... well, the ways of a spider seem
strange to a pig. It was at this moment that I realized: Charlotte plays
Diplomacy. Really --
"Well," [Wilbur] thought, "I've got a new friend, all right! But
what a gamble friendship is! Charlotte is fierce, brutal, scheming,
bloodthirsty-everything I don't like. How can I learn to like her...?
Anon:
Continuing the DC Invitational tradition of opening the annual extravaganza up to the touts, here are the official Vegas odds for the 2010 edition, along with comments from Vegas legend Frank "Lefty" Rosenthal:
1-1 Mike Sims/Sicily. He's the legend, what more needs to be said?! We had him at 1-2 for a while but money started to go down on the rest of the field, pros looking for overlays. If you've gotta bet the house on somebody winning this thing Sims is your man.
2-1 Chris Morse/Spain. Not only did he just win the Winter Blitz - you know he's hungry to sweep both major annual events - he's one of the top rated players at DC. As if that isn't enough he is playing as Spain, the hands-down best power in Aberration. If Sims wasn't playing I would say the tourney was lined up perfectly for him to walk away with it. 2010 feels like his year.
4-1 Kevin OKelly/Byzantium. Ol' Bledsoe didn't do this pro justice when he snuck in as a late replacement. Guess who won the first-ever DCI in 2006? You guessed it: Kevin OKelly. We had him posted longer as a "dark horse" thanks to his modest DC rating, but the word about him is out on the streets. He is being bet down hard. I think this game is a 2-way race between the favorites but he's the obvious spoiler pick.
6-1 Adam Martin-Schwarze/Hungary. Last year's champ is getting betting respect - and he deserves it. Last year's field was arguably stronger top-to-bottom and he beat 'em all. I'm not liking him this year though and think he's being bet too heavily.
6-1 Joe Hackett/Israel. This guy's got a great record, no eliminations, high rating...he's got it all. In fact a lot of early smart money was being played on him. But as the handicappers started picking him apart they realized he is a "Standard-only" player: he's only played one Variant, last year's DCI. However he's got an excellent position in Israel and with results like his he needs to be in the mix of low odd options.
15-1 Mikael Johansson/Poland. Big dip down from the top five to the bottom four, in our opinion. Mikael's the clear "best of the rest". This guy's never seen a Diplomacy game he didn't want to play and must be the most experienced player in DC history. A classic "boom-or-bust" player with lots of results all across the spectrum. I wouldn't put it past him to shock the world.
20-1 Mike Walters/Burgundy. Being an unknown is hurting him here, perhaps unfairly so. Maybe he's got a deeper pedigree than we realize, but we've got to judge what is in front of us. Yes, he's got that solo. It is tantalizing to say the least. But in a field this good that's just not enough to bet up. Somebody might get a real value in betting him at this price though.
25-1 Dirk Knemeyer/Eire. He's not alone as the longest shot only because he's in the corner and less likely to be devoured in the early going than some of the more central powers. Still, he just doesn't have the pedigree to warrant laying real money on to actually win it.
25-1 John Reside/Ukraine. He's got a notable record of being "good" but not necessarily "great". No solos, but 6 draws to go with just 1 survival and 2 eliminations. He might hang around but we just haven't seen the breakout ability here that would suggest he can persevere over this field.
I'm going to go with the hot hand and the better payout and put my money on Chris Morse. It feels heretical to bet against Mike Sims but sometimes you've just gotta go with your gut.
Happy hunting all. And to anyone who, errr, "helps" Chris Morse win so I can collect on my wager I've got a suite reserved at the Horseshoe just for you.
<dc10S01 final.dpy>
<dc10S01 final.gif>
<dc10S01 orders.gif>
<DCI10 map of centers.gif>
